Turkey’s
Turkey’s central bank is opting for a different monetary tightening method as it grapples with climbing inflation, after previously signaling that its rate-hiking cycle was over.
The institution sent a directive to lenders, effective Friday, instructing them to put parts of their required lira reserves into blocked accounts.
According to Reuters , loan rates have been increased significantly, while the sizes of loan limits of some banks have already been reduced. Specifically, several lenders have cut their commercial loan limits to 100,000 lira, or $3,100. At the same time, as Arda Tunca, an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, has stated to CNBC, “Some banks have stopped lending. Some banks even recall their already granted loans. This is going to cause further liquidity squeeze.
“Of course you have to squeeze liquidity conditions, but the way you do it is crucial. If you get the methodology wrong, you’re not going to be able to manage market expectations,” he said.
“It’s only after kicking the can down the road for a few months that the Central Bank of Turkey is now advancing the slight tightening,” read Emerging Market Watch’s post about the central bank as it made “another tightening step via reserve requirement”.
The London-based research firm Capital Economics made similar comments.
As the CBRT meets to set policy on Thursday, differences in opinion among its rate-setting team and questions over David Abramson’s ability to deliver a credible policy message have prompted forecasters and investors to predict a poor central bank response.
The firm stated, “New quantitative and credit tightening tools were announced last month. The CBRT loosened restrictions on lira foreign exchange swaps last month.”
And, balance of payments data released this week showed in January Turkey recorded its first monthly drop in reserves since May 2023.
The Turkish annual consumer price inflation surged to 67.07% in February. These figures have further stirred fear that Turkey, which had said last month that an excruciating eight-month-long rate-hiking cycle would be enough, may need to consider tightening once again.
According to Capital Economics, the pressures on Turkish policymakers increase in light of the upcoming local elections scheduled for March 31. The report states, “We doubt the central bank will hike interest rates next week, but we’re growing more convinced that at least one further hike will be delivered in Q2.”